NOTE: This PDF document has a handy set of “bookmarks” for it, which are accessible Singularity Is Near is startling in scope and bravado.". Kurzweil's knee can be positioned anywhere depending on the perception of the observer at the time. An exponential (dark gray line) and a logistic (light gray line) fit on world-population data. The graph focuses on the 20th century during which we have accurate and detailed data. Ray Kurzweil The Singularity Is Near - [Free] Ray Kurzweil The Singularity Is Near [PDF]. [EPUB] Raymond Kurzweil (/? k??r z w a? l.
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The Singularity Is Near. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend. Biology is a update of. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology is a non-fiction book about .. PDF; Vinge, Vernor (). "Vernor Vinge on the Singularity". Kurzweil Ray. The Singularity Is Near. Файл формата pdf; размером 2,41 МБ. Добавлен пользователем olka ; Отредактирован .
In fact, although Kurzweil says early on in the book that his view of the future is neither utopian nor dystopian, the future described is so rosy that the Singularity has also been called "the Geeks' Rapture". Indeed, if Kurzweil's predictions do come true, they are comparible in their size and implications to the Second Coming of Jesus - the conquering of death and the unification of all consciousness in to one computational substrate that is to become more powerful than anything in the Universe and spreads outward from the Earth at the speed of light The book quickly became an absolute page-turner for me and as incredulous as it sounded, Kurzweil backed up every prediction with thorough research, logic, and his own impressive credentials - Kurzweil was something of a child prodigy who programmed computers and wrote scientific papers at an early age and became the inventor of OCR Optical Character Recognition and the Kurzweil digital pianos and keyboards that bear his name.
Kurzweil now works at Google where his job description is "to bring natural language understanding to Google" - a goal not too distant from developing an AI capable of passing the Turing test.
During my time as a software developer, discussions often arose about the future of technology and I would occasionally lend the book to other developers. Unfortunately, at some point the book wasn't returned and I wasn't too fussed as I'd already read it thoroughly.
Recently, I decided to download another copy and re-read it - after all, I still consider it to be one of the best books I've ever read. This time though, 12 years after the initial publication, it would be possible to see how Kurzweil's predictions had done.
ACCURACY Essentially correct In The Singularity is Near, the wording could be interpreted to mean that it is commonly used, which is not yet the case, but this is likely to become the case over the next couple of years. What about Google Glass? Well it may still be being developed, but it certainly isn't in common use.
Kurzweil also tends to mark many of his other predictions as "correct", when really they're not, even now in So, let's get on to my re-reading of The Singularity is Near, which even for the second time I thoroughly enjoyed and took away a load more fascinating information that I may have missed on the first reading. This time I noted any predictions as I went through that we can now verify and what I found is below. On pages 11 and 12 we have: "James Watson, the codiscoverer of DNA, said that in fifty years we will have drugs that will allow us to eat as much as we want without gaining weight.
I replied, 'Fifty years? Drugs for human use These will be available in five to ten years, not fifty. According to the NHS website however, 1, gastrc band operations were performed in and today we still don't have a pill that you can take and then eat what you want.
I'm sure Kurzweil would disagree, but if we're being honest, there is still no magic pill available that lets us eat what we want and not gain weight. Prediction: False Page "By the end of this decade, computers will disappear as distinct physical objects, with displays built in our eyeglasses, and electronics woven in our clothing, providing full-immersion visual virtual reality. Thus, 'going to a Web site' will mean entering a virtual-reality environment - at least for the visual and auditory senses - where we can directly interact with products and people, both real and simulated.
Although simulated people will not be up to human standards - at least not by - they will be quite satisfactory as sales agents, reservation clerks, and research assistants. The time they need to do that will rely on whether these self-multiplying intelligence can defeat the points of confinement of the speed of light. Right now, you might feel that these thoughts are insane or screwball, and to be fair, that is a reasonable reaction.
You are seeing the singularity from your present viewpoint. Since the singularity will have a significant impact on humankind as the whole course of evolution, you are like a bacterium attempting to envision a human.
However, you have two advantageous differences with the bacterium: a significantly evolved intelligence and an experiential awareness of development. Think about it.
Try to grasp it.
And use your intellect to get ready and exploit the coming changes. Reverse Engineering the Brain 2. Nanotechnology — The Next Little Thing 3. Nanotechnology — The Next Little Thing Humankind will use nanotechnology to redesign the body on an atomic level.
It will make healing and reconstruction possible. The Turing Test Humans will use robots for most physical tasks and work, but the most important advancement in robotics will be the development of artificial intelligence.
You already use some form of AI, but in the future strong AI will be developed. By strong AI we mean an artificial intelligence that passes the Turing test and exceeds the intelligence of humans. You can expect that strong AI will cause even more significant changes than those that nanotechnology will. Thus Kurzweil concludes it is humanity's destiny to do the saturating, enlisting all matter and energy in the process.
As for individual identities during these radical changes, Kurzweil suggests people think of themselves as an evolving pattern rather than a specific collection of molecules.
Kurzweil says evolution moves towards "greater complexity, greater elegance, greater knowledge, greater intelligence, greater beauty, greater creativity, and greater levels of subtle attributes such as love".
That means, he continues, that evolution is moving towards a conception of God and that the transition away from biological roots is in fact a spiritual undertaking.
Kurzweil does not include an actual written timeline of the past and future, as he did in The Age of Intelligent Machines and The Age of Spiritual Machines , however he still makes many specific predictions. Kurzweil writes that by a supercomputer will have the computational capacity to emulate human intelligence  and "by around " this same capacity will be available "for one thousand dollars".
Kurzweil spells out the date very clearly: A common criticism of the book relates to the "exponential growth fallacy". As an example, in , man landed on the moon. Extrapolating exponential growth from there one would expect huge lunar bases and manned missions to distant planets. Instead, exploration stalled or even regressed after that. Paul Davies writes "the key point about exponential growth is that it never lasts"  often due to resource constraints.
On the other hand, it has been shown that the global acceleration until recently followed a hyperbolic rather than exponential pattern.
Theodore Modis says "nothing in nature follows a pure exponential" and suggests the logistic function is a better fit for "a real growth process". The logistic function looks like an exponential at first but then tapers off and flattens completely.
For example, world population and the United States's oil production both appeared to be rising exponentially, but both have leveled off because they were logistic. Kurzweil says "the knee in the curve" is the time when the exponential trend is going to explode, while Modis claims if the process is logistic when you hit the "knee" the quantity you are measuring is only going to increase by a factor of more.
While some critics complain that the law of accelerating returns is not a law of nature  others question the religious motivations or implications of Kurzweil's Singularity. The buildup towards the Singularity is compared with Judeo-Christian end-of-time scenarios.
Beam calls it "a Buck Rogers vision of the hypothetical Christian Rapture". The radical nature of Kurzweil's predictions is often discussed. Anthony Doerr says that before you "dismiss it as techno-zeal" consider that "every day the line between what is human and what is not quite human blurs a bit more". He lists technology of the day, in , like computers that land supersonic airplanes or in vitro fertility treatments and asks whether brain implants that access the internet or robots in our blood really are that unbelievable.
In regard to reverse engineering the brain, neuroscientist David J. Linden writes that "Kurzweil is conflating biological data collection with biological insight".
He feels that data collection might be growing exponentially, but insight is increasing only linearly. For example, the speed and cost of sequencing genomes is also improving exponentially, but our understanding of genetics is growing very slowly. As for nanobots Linden believes the spaces available in the brain for navigation are simply too small. He acknowledges that someday we will fully understand the brain, just not on Kurzweil's timetable. Paul Davies wrote in Nature that The Singularity is Near is a "breathless romp across the outer reaches of technological possibility" while warning that the "exhilarating speculation is great fun to read, but needs to be taken with a huge dose of salt.
Anthony Doerr in The Boston Globe wrote "Kurzweil's book is surprisingly elaborate, smart, and persuasive. He writes clean methodical sentences, includes humorous dialogues with characters in the future and past, and uses graphs that are almost always accessible.
She observes that he's more focused on optimistic outcomes rather than the risks. Inspired by the book, Ptolemy directed and produced the film Transcendent Man , which went on to bring more attention to the book. Kurzweil has also directed his own adaptation, called The Singularity is Near , which mixes documentary with a science-fiction story involving his robotic avatar Ramona's transformation into an artificial general intelligence.